Mar 5, 2021 2 min read Historical Returns

Weekend Report 3-5-21

YTD returns achieved following FIRE Tactical Asset Allocation (TAA) trading system.

Included in this issue of The FIRE Letter:

Market Wrap
FIRE Portfolios YTD Return
Benchmarks YTD Return
Investor Sentiment

Market Wrap for the Week Ending Mar 5, 2021

This past week started with a nice rebound from the slide at the end of February. The rebound continued through mid week with a pullback on Thursday, only to bounce back a little on Friday. Overall, the S&P 500 was up 0.83% for the week.

FIRE Portfolios - YTD Return

My FIRE mutual fund portfolio at Fidelity is up 11.85% YTD
My FIRE ETF portfolio at Schwab is up 12.75% YTD

Still moving in the right direction!

Benchmark Stock Market Indices - YTD Return

The S&P 500 (Vanguard fund VFINX) is up 2.56% YTD
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (State Street SPDR ETF DIA) is up 3.33% YTD

Investor Sentiment

I find investor sentiment to be an interesting contrarian indicator. There are several similar indicators put out by different organizations. I like CNN’s Fear and Greed index, currently sitting at 59, which is a little above neutral. The indicator’s scale goes from 0 - 100 with 0 being most pessimistic (Fearful) and 100 being most optimistic (Greedy). A reading of 50 is considered neutral.

This indicator is contrarian because supposedly, when investor optimism is high, there are less investors likely to buy more stocks and push the markets higher.

This indicator was at a very low reading of 9 a year ago. Last year’s severe downturn was underway by this date last year.

The Fear and Greed indicator isn’t part of my quantitative decision making, however, I like following it to get a reality check on how the markets are behaving and feel to me.

A reading of 59 is usually no cause for concern.

Thanks for reading! Hope you are off to a good start to your week!

Best regards,

Mike

Editor, The FIRE Letter

Disclaimer: All strategies including recommended trades published here are for educational and informational purposes only. They are not recommended for any specific individual, business, or other legal entity. I don’t know your age, income, personal or financial circumstances and cannot possibly suggest any financial decisions for you. Seek advice from your accountant, financial advisor, and attorney before making any investing decisions. Always conduct your own due diligence before making any investing decisions. Seriously!