Mar 19, 2021 2 min read Historical Returns

Weekend Report 3-19-21

FIRE Portfolios' YTD returns achieved following my FIRE Tactical Asset Allocation (TAA) trading system.

Editor's note: This article is public for paid and free subscribers.

Included in this issue of The FIRE Letter:

Market Wrap
FIRE Portfolios YTD Return
Benchmarks YTD Return
Investor Sentiment

Market Wrap for the Week Ending Mar 19, 2021

The technology sector and the broad markets pulled back some this past week. We were probably due for a pause after the previous couple of weeks.

The markets seem to be repeating the pattern we saw in both January and February where they start off strong and then pull back some in the latter part of the month. I’m interested to see if this continues and we finish March on a weak note or if we can break the pattern and finish strong.

Overall, the S&P 500 was down about 0.75% for the week.

FIRE Portfolios - YTD Return

My FIRE mutual fund portfolio at Fidelity is up 12.15% YTD
My FIRE ETF portfolio at Schwab is up 13.33% YTD

Do you remember what I said last week about trend following sectors paying off well when your signals are good to you? And that hot sectors can turn on you quickly? My signals have still served very well so far this year, however, the good fortune of following hot sectors did indeed turn on me quickly this past week.

My Fidelity portfolio was down almost 3% and my Schwab portfolio was down more than 3% this past week. This is to be expected with sectors.

Benchmark Stock Market Indices - YTD Return

The S&P 500 (Vanguard fund VFINX) is up 4.53% YTD
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (State Street ETF DIA) is up 7.08% YTD

Investor Sentiment

I find investor sentiment to be an interesting contrarian indicator. There are several similar indicators put out by different organizations.

Looking at the US Investor Sentiment, % Bullish indicator, its latest reading is 48.94% which is down from 49.41% a week earlier and up from 29.74% a year ago. Its long term average is 37.98%.

This type of indicator is contrarian because supposedly, when investor optimism is very high, there are less investors likely to buy more stocks and push the markets higher.

Thanks for reading!

Best regards,

Mike Bishop

Editor, The FIRE Letter

Disclaimer: All strategies including recommended trades published here are for educational and informational purposes only. They are not recommended for any specific individual, business, or other legal entity. I don’t know your age, income, personal or financial circumstances and cannot possibly suggest any financial or investing decisions for you. Seek advice from your accountant, financial advisor, and attorney before making any investing decisions. Always conduct your own due diligence before making any investing decisions. Seriously!