Mar 12, 2021 2 min read Historical Returns

Weekend Report 3-12-21

YTD returns achieved following FIRE Tactical Asset Allocation (TAA) trading system.

Included in this issue of The FIRE Letter:

Market Wrap
FIRE Portfolios YTD Return
Benchmarks YTD Return
Investor Sentiment

Market Wrap for the Week Ending Mar 12, 2021

The technology sector came roaring back this past week. You may recall a serious pullback in technology and growth sectors during the latter part of February. It’ll be interesting to see if technology’s comeback lasts or if it fades.

Overall, the S&P 500 was up 2.69% for the week.

FIRE Portfolios - YTD Return

My FIRE mutual fund portfolio at Fidelity is up 15.1% YTD
My FIRE ETF portfolio at Schwab is up 16.9% YTD

Trend following sectors can pay off well when your signals are good to you. My signals have served well so far this year, however, the good fortune of following hot sectors can turn on you quickly. So I’m cautiously optimistic and very satisfied so far.

Benchmark Stock Market Indices - YTD Return

The S&P 500 (Vanguard fund VFINX) is up 5.31% YTD
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (State Street SPDR ETF DIA) is up 7.61% YTD

Investor Sentiment

I find investor sentiment to be an interesting contrarian indicator. There are several similar indicators put out by different organizations. I like CNN’s Fear and Greed index as mentioned in past issues, however, I also look at the US Investor Sentiment, % Bullish indicator sometimes. Its latest reading is 49.41% which is up from 40.26% a week earlier and 38.74% a year ago. Its long term average is 37.98%.

This type of indicator is contrarian because supposedly, when investor optimism is very high, there are less investors likely to buy more stocks and push the markets higher.

Thanks for reading!

Best regards,

Mike

Editor, The FIRE Letter

Disclaimer: All strategies including recommended trades published here are for educational and informational purposes only. They are not recommended for any specific individual, business, or other legal entity. I don’t know your age, income, personal or financial circumstances and cannot possibly suggest any financial decisions for you. Seek advice from your accountant, financial advisor, and attorney before making any investing decisions. Always conduct your own due diligence before making any investing decisions. Seriously!